So this past Friday I attended the weekly luncheon of the Houston Property Rights Association. Boy am I glad I did because I discovered that there is a big Houston related issue which has flown completely under the media and blogosphere radar. The speakers at the luncheon were a 50 something school administrator named Nancy Wilcox and a naturalized American citizen named Brigit Green, both of whom are members of a group calling itself the Floodway Coalition of Houston. And what, pray tell, was their talk about? It was about how the City of Houston has trashed the property rights of those who live in and around bayous.
Flooding of course is a big issue in Houston and along the Gulf Coast. We have a so called flood control district, but in fact people should be well aware that man cannot often control floods! Translation: Buy yourself Go* Da**** some flood insurance!
More to the point, according to the group's website, on October 1, 2006, a revision to the City of Houston code chapter 19 section 43, which deals with floodways, was put into effect. Briefly, there is a difference between a flood plain and a floodway. The flood plain is where water accumulates and there are five recognized different kinds of flooding. Meanwhile, a floodway is the course and direction in which the water takes on its way to reaching bayous or flood plains. Got it?
Now then. Essentially, the revised ordinance says that areas which have been designated as floodways (and according to Ms. Wilcox and Green not all bayous and floodways in the City have been designated as such - which they noted lends quite a bit of capriciousness to the ordinance) are now subject to general prohibitions on new development, in particular low rise or low density development. This is all in the name of the Greater Good of course. The restrictions on development also include prohibitions on damage repairs (not including general maintenance by the way) to structures which exceed 50 percent of the value of the property and structure (a so called 50 percent substantial damage clause). So if your house catches on fire, then tough luck. You won't be able to rebuild if the damage is greater than 50 percent of the value of your property. This is particularly onerous since it is quite forseeable that housing and buildings along flood ways might at some point fall into a dilapidated slum type state and owners will not be able to do anything about them. That in turn leads to the specter of plunging property values, indeed some appraisers have told Floodway Coalition members that the revised ordinance could wipe out up to 95 percent of the value of affected properties.
So what's the point of all of this? The City would probably say that this is in the name of the Greater Good. The conspiracy theory says however that the City wants to let these areas slum out, then acquire land nearby floodways at bargain basement prices. In turn, those areas could be used for detention basins, parkland, or better yet high density real estate redevelopment. Indeed one of the positions of the coalition is that some of their members do not necessarily mind having their land acquired if this is indeed in the Greater Good. They just want to get bought out at values which their property was valued at before the ordinance went into effect in October 2006. And by the way, the ordinance was passed with no public input.
Enough for now. Here is a link to the Tropical Storm Allison Recovery Project. Here is a link to a Houston Chronicle story dated June 16, 2007 saying that new flood maps go into effect on June 18, 2007.
The Floodway Coalition has already spent some $3,500 in sending postcards to some 7,000 property owners who happen to live or own property near bayous. They also have had to raise money for appraisers and lawyers. They essentially hope to force the City politically into revisiting the ordinance to get compromises which are much more property rights friendly - and don't forget that we received the news that Governor Rick Perry vetoed HB 2006 which would have strengthened property rights in Texas. If you would like to know more about this group, contribute time or money to their cause, or have one of their members come speak to your group in much greater detail than I am going into here, then visit their website and send them an email.
Wizard.
I followed some leads to this story printed in the June 10, 2007 edition of U.S.A Today. Here are some excerpts:
Victoria Gardens in Rancho Cucamonga, Calif., is typical of dozens of developments sprouting along the nation's light-rail lines and near subway stations: stores, theaters, restaurants, offices and housing connected by sidewalks to mimic a walkable urban neighborhood.
Just one thing is missing: transit.
There is no light rail or subway in Rancho Cucamonga, about 50 miles east of Los Angeles. Victoria Gardens is typical of most Southern California developments: It's on one freeway and next to another.
Transit-oriented developments are so popular with residents who crave the opportunity to live in a walkable community that at least a dozen cities and suburbs across the USA are embracing the concept — even if they don't have rail.
"The market is changing much more quickly than our policymakers are responding," says Shelley Poticha, CEO of Reconnecting America, a national non-profit group that works to spur development around transit stops. "There is a real pent-up demand for transit all over the country, but these communities are getting built by the private sector."
Wizard: Actually, there is practically no pent up market demand for mass transit according to the latest American Community Survey. There is a pent up demand in political markets for mass transit. Always pay attention to what people actually do, not what they say.
Resuming:
Building housing near shops and restaurants is "very successful in and of itself," says Randall Lewis, executive vice president of Lewis Retail, an Upland, Calif., company that was one of Victoria Gardens' developers. "It's not transit that makes them successful. If you had transit, it would be the cherry on top of the whipped cream."
The funny thing about all of this is that much of this is happening in the suburbs. Also, do keep in mind that many such developments are built with tax breaks, TIRZ involvement, handouts and so forth.
Wizard
It seems impossible to escape the onslaught of coverage surrounding the incarceration of Paris Hilton. The front page of the Houston Chronicle carried a photo of Ms. Hilton sobbing away at the prospect of spending a mere 45 days in the lockup, crying that it was "unfair". She looked like a six year old girl.
Since Ms. Hilton has made it impossible to escape paying any attention to Hollywood, culture, cinema or celebrity without having her vapid face appearing in front of the cameras, I made a conscientious decision a number of years ago to quit paying attention to what she was up to since she wasn't worth following anyway. She can't sing, she can't dance, she cannot act, she cannot paint or do computer wizardry. Ms. Hilton isn't even that good looking. As such, I had no real idea that Paris Hilton was even in trouble with the law. So I figured a timeline was in order so I could reconstruct the chain of events which has led to her incarceration:
1) Paris was stopped September 6, 2006 for driving under the influence.
2) Paris pleaded not guilty in January 2007 at her arraignment on the DUI charges. She ends up getting probation for DUI.
3) Paris then proceeds to get arrested again. This time it is because she failed to live up to the terms of her probation, which included not driving under a suspended license. She then refused to accept responsibility for the matter and blamed her publicist, saying that she had been told she could drive for work related reasons. Her mother called the sentencing disgusting.
4) Fans and arm twisters apparently made an appeal to California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger to get him to commute the sentence. It appears that the Terminator refused to grant their demands.
Sorry folks, but the whole point of probations is to slap you on the wrist and let you off easy. Paris Hilton didn't even live up to something as simple as that. It's too bad that she won't be able to stay in one of California's more upscale lockups.
While watching Simon Schama's A History of Britain on the History Channel several years ago, Schama recounted that one of the better investments a well off man could make in 17th and 18th century Britain was to put money into prisons. That was because convicts were charged for the privilege of staying in their hotels from hell on a daily basis. The more money you put up, the better arrangements you got. You might have even had the chance to stay in a private cell with a pot to go to the toilet with, along with a barred window where you could toss out your - ahem - wastes. If you couldn't cough up, then you got to sleep with the rats and 30 other cell mates. You might have even gotten a chance to eat something during the day.
But it seems poor Paris won't get a chance to buy her way out of this one. I doubt she will be scared into behaving any better, but even I have occasionally been wrong. After all, any publicity is better than no publicity at all.
As things look, it appears that the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County will be moving forward with Phase 2 of its Metro Solutions plan passed in November 2003. The intent is to build bus rapid transit along most of the routes, but rail along the others. The bus rapid transit routes would be then converted to rail, based upon improved transit patronage. It is clear that various groups intend on steering Houston towards a public transportation policy in whose intent is to spend large amounts of capital to supplant current bus service along routes where there is a known market for public transportation. It also seems to be the intent of downtown groups to push guideway transit to Houston's two main airports, a project whose ultimate cost will probably be at least $2-3 billion if not more.
In a rational sense, the primary questions one has to ask surround the building of any transportation project is whether the current existing infrastructure is adequate for handling the demands being placed on it. This is particularly relevant in transportation areas and corridors whose primary use is intended to be for transportation purposes. In other words, does an airport have enough runways to handle incoming traffic? Does a freeway have enough lanes or a pricing structure which would avoid crowding to the point where traffic jams result in congestion for substantial periods of the day? Is the available public transportation mode adequate to meet the demand curve for public transit? If the answers to questions like these are yes, yet the result is the building or supplanting of infrastructure, then we are indulging in the building of transportation infrastructure for no really good reason.
One of the observations (or complaints depending upon your point of view) surrounding the keeping and writing of boards and weblogs is that blog writers and board members seldom do anything more than link to mainstream media sites and comment on their stories. In other words, bloggers and board posters seldom do any of their own journalism, reporting, or original research on various topics. Well I intend to do my two cents worth to help rectify those complaints. I have a minor project surrounding HISD which I will comment on in the near future, but this blog entry will be used to announce a project surrounding the one of the primary claims made on behalf of building interurban rail systems. Namely, will the building of a guided transit system or light rail system result in substantial revitalization or redevelopment of real estate along the proposed routes in Houston?
There are a number of reasons why various groups support the indulgence of building of fixed guideway passenger systems in cities in an age where such transportation is often ill suited to often fast changing land use patterns and which faces stiff competition from low cost telecommuting, walking, and personal motorized transportation. Rail seems to act as a kind of perfume to civic boosters who look at passenger rail as a way of adding prestige to their city or their area within a city. They also often look at other cities who may boast of their rail offerings irregardless of what the demand curve for public transportation is, whether that demand could be met by improving bus service whose capital costs are a fraction of rail, or whether or not rail positively contributes to social welfare. Rail enjoys near universal support amongst environmentalists and urban planners who seem appalled at ongoing driving habits amongst urban dwellers. City officials and members of politically powerful downtown interest groups who are tied into the municipal establishment also support fixed guideways and rail, looking on them as a way to try to bolster downtown areas from deterioration. There are the various contractor groups who would stand to gain from building passenger rail, and there are members of the public who seem to think that rail alleviates traffic congestion or improves air quality irregardless of whether it actually does or not. Finally, there are a few members of the public who support rail for the simple matter that they fans of rail and prefer rail over other forms of transit. Rail would be viewed as a normal good amongst such groups. In other words, there is a significant political market for guideways.
But those are not the end of claims made on behalf of building passenger rail. Putting guideways and tracks into the ground creates definitive new realities and facts on the ground. Among them are that transit operators seldom set prices for public transportation at rates which will cover capital costs (the proposed rail line running from the eastside Universities through to the Hillcroft transit center is expected to cost over $600 million), or for that matter ongoing operating or maintenance costs. In other words, fixed guideways might be a winner in political markets, yet the fact that they are so does not alleviate them from having to face the realities of economic markets. It is likely that if light rail is put along the Phase 2 routes as envisioned, annual operating costs will reach about $75+ million per year in 2006 dollars which is about 25 percent of Metro's current operational expenditures. If the public private partnership that Metro intends to enter into results in financial distress borne by the private partner (and bear in mind that Washington Group International - the current contractor chosen for initial buidling - is responsible to shareholders), then Metro would be faced with the possibility of having to take over and operate the guideways on its own. Moreover from a social welfare perspective, small miles of fixed guideways will often not get poorer patrons to areas where there are jobs whereas longer reaching bus routes can. Therefore other rationales are often used to justify the concentrated spending of such large capital costs into relatively small areas.
One of these primary claims made on behalf of rail is that it boosts real estate values of property located along rail routes. It is my intention to show whether this will end up happening along guided rapid transit light rail routes in Houston.
To this end, last weekend I walked along the Northside transit route and took about 750 photographs of properties along the route. I also noted that Metro has over 30 bus stops and seven main bus routes currently running along the corridor. This is to be replaced or supplanted by a 5.4 mile transit line which will have five stops (10 stops since the transit will be running in both directions) between the existing UH downtown rail station and Northline mall. Over the upcoming weeks, I will be walking the remaining routes to document their current state of development. I anticipate that I will end up with about 4,000 photographs depicting what current development is like. After the project is completed, I hope to repeat the exercise and compare the results.
I also have started a project to determine what real estate values are like in the areas along proposed routes. I intend to sample 1,000 random properties along each of the proposed routes and hope to compare the results after the project is completed. In general, the sampling will focus in particular on real estate values within 400-600 yards of proposed stations. However I also intend to sample properties directly along routes, but further away than this. I also intend to sample properties in neighborhoods where routes are, but which may be set back say 1/2 mile or so away from routes. I also intend to do some sampling of business or commercial properties. The source will be the Harris County Appraisal District website, which for all of the district's known issues surrounding property appraisals, will serve the purpose of keeping the source of data consistent for purposes of sampling.
Enough for now. I've got some work cut out for me if I am to complete this project. I also have an update on the boardings spreadsheet updated through March 2007 which I intend to publish soon. Until then.
Later.
Addendum: Federal transit rules in the United States Code allow local transit agencies to use federal grants to purchase land and then sell it at a discount to would be developers if that land will be developed, not for its highest and best use, but for its highest transit oriented development use. Here is one such story.
Sigh...
Folks, I enjoy working with Linux but Microsoft has been working on something for several years now that has put them back on the front end of the computing innovation curve and will blow the open source movement completely off their rockers. Check out these videos of surface touch screen computing. This is better than anything you might have seen in The Minority Report. Perhaps this is why the Vista operating system took so long to come out?
This is going to be a monster hit. Jeff Han and his Perceptive Pixel company have made sure that computing will never be the same again. The Wizard predicts that in ten years computer keyboards and mice are going to be obsolete and will be filling up space in our dumpsters and landfills.
Ciao for now.