I grew up poor. I rode the bus until I was 24 years old. Once I got my first car, I never looked back.
Houston City Council member at-large, Jolanda Jones, at a Bill King speech, July 29th, 2010.
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Things flew fast and heavy this past week on the Metro Rail front. This past week, the Wizard attended two public talks on Metro Rail. The first was put on at the headquarters of the Harris County Democratic Party on Tuesday night, July 27th. The second meeting was a presentation put on by former Houston mayoral candidate Bill King, held at a Galleria area restaurant. While the Wizard attended both events, the Wizard did not bother to stand up and ask any questions at either event. Mostly the Wizard took notes and let the speakers have their say.
Before going any further describing what was talked about at both events, the Wizard is simply going to outline for gentle readers what the overall situation is with Metro and the agency's desires to built light rail.
As things stand now with Metro Rail
1) The five rail lines envisioned, totaling 30-31 miles, will probably end up costing roughly $4 billion plus to build.
According to Paul Magaziner, Metro currently has about $100 million in cash - that's it. The State of Texas requires that Metro maintain at least $60 million in cash on hand. If Metro intends to issue more bonds, then those bonds will have to be certified by Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott's office, and that's not assured.
2) At the meeting with Harris County Democrats, Metro chairman Gilbert Garcia told the audience that Metro had spent $640 million on light rail since the November 2003 election. He did not go into details or breakdown for the audience on how that money had been spent. However one thing is obvious: Despite having spent all that money, Metro still hasn't laid down one yard of rail track on any of the rail lines.
3) Tom Bazan has been religiously capturing sales tax data for both the City of Houston and Metro since 2001. His latest spreadsheet, which he updates monthly, can be downloaded here. Tom Bazan's data shows that Metro is on a path to collect roughly $490 million. In contrast, Metro forecast in it's 2008 SFEIS for the Southeast Corridor rail alignment that it would collect $592 million in sales taxes for 2010, a shortfall of 17 percent.
Metro's entire financial analysis is extremely aggressive. For example, the spreadsheet offered states that Metro would collect $804.8 million in sales taxes in 2015.
4) Metro owes the City of Houston some $130 million in general mobility funds, debts that had accumulated during former Mayor Bill White's term in office.
5) Even if Metro manages to get all federal grants, Metro will have to cough up at least another $2 billion in local funding to complete this project.
Bill King's speech - July 29th 2010
Mr. King's presentation can be viewed online here. Several highlights include that Metro stated in its financial analysis that the agency would not be obligated to turn over 25 percent of its sales tax monies for general mobility street construction purposes to member cities after 2015, which is rather presumptuous since an election has to be held on this issue in 2014 according to the 2003 referendum. The agency admitted in its environmental impact statements that making turns with its trains along the Richmond / Wheeler University rail route would result in high levels of noise. The aforementioned sales tax and farebox recovery figures are wildly optimistic, with farebox recovery rising from $60 million in 2010 to $132 million in 2015, and $167 million in 2020. Mr. King reiterated his call for lowered or eliminating fares on Metro's buses. King's analysis is that 20 percent of all trips taken in the Houston area are for work trips, and Metro can only hope to attract a few percent of those work trips. King expressed concern that the agency board has already tied itself with contracts over the project.
King stated that there were several things that Metro could do to gain efficiency. One was to sign long term contracts for natural gas as a fuel source.
As an aside, a number of people who were in the audience were from Metro, which is standard operating procedure for the agency. Metro usually sends employees to public meetings on Metro Rail, both to keep an eye out on the public mood and to pack meetings with "supporters" of their plans.
The HCDP event - July 27th 2010
Metro's new chairman, Gilbert Garcia, was joined by the new CEO, former City controller George Greanias, and long time Metro executive John Sedlak, at the HCDP event. The three men took turns at the microphone speaking, at which was their constituency.
Gilbert Garcia was chairman of Mayor Annise Parker's 2009 campaign. He's an investment banker, affiliated with Henry Cisneros's money management fund. He told the audience that he cut his teeth in politics working for Walter Mondale's Presidency bid in 1984 in New Jersey and Texas. Mr. Garcia is a Yale graduate, making him a member of what Angelo Codevilla calls the ruling class
Garcia went on to tell the audience on how he was in Atlanta, where instead of a $75 cab drive, he took a MARTA train for $2, ending with a rhetorical "if Atlanta can do it, then why can't Houston?" Garcia reported that morale was low at Metro when he first started. He introduced himself to an employee, who told him, "I've never met a board member, much less the chairman." Garcia stated that agency leadership was eating, sleeping, going all out to get the $900 million in federal grant money. Garcia stated the current board's intention to complete all five rail lines, and asserted that Houston was limiting its future by not doing so.
Actually, the Wizard thinks that Houston is not limiting itself by not building light rail. It is the political classes and those who are politically connected to the City and to Metro whose futures are being limited by not building light rail.
George Greanias then got up to speak. Greanias told the audience that he had not been active in the 2009 Mayor's race, and had not endorsed anyone. A few criticized that Greanias had no transit background, but Greanias himself said that was a good thing.
Greanias stated that "nothing will shape Houston like Metro, with the exception of HISD." He told the audience that 30 percent of work trips into downtown were ferried by Metro, and 20 percent of work trips to the Medical Center were via Metro. Metro now has GPS installed on all buses, and the agency washes all buses every night with recycled water. Greanias took the occasion to announce (in advance) of a letter Metro received from the Harris County District Attorney's office that allegations from former City controller Lloyd Kelley had been cleared, as well as that Metro had received a Record of Decision from the US-FTA for the Wheeler / Richmond University rail line. Nothing was said about a recent story by Texas Watchdog about an HISD study comparing efficiencies of HISD's bus fleet verses Metro's.
Greanias said that when he came to office that Metro employees did not feel connected to management, and that he vowed that Metro would keep promises it made to the public. Grenias asserted that "we have to build this rail system!"
Greanias said that "we've made it more convenient for people not to use transit than to use transit", in reference to Metro's surrendering of sales tax monies for general mobility funding. John Sedlak reiterated this remark later. It became clear to me that there is a mindset amongst the Metro brass that they don't seem to count the fact that streets that are fixed up with Metro's sales tax dollars are also used by Metro's buses. Greanias asserted that Metro Rail on Main Street replaced 11 Metro bus routes, something the Wizard knows to be false. There used to be four bus routes directly running on Main Street that were truncated after the rail line was put into place.
John Sedlak, Metro VP took to the podium. The Wizard had not seen Mr. Sedlak in two years, and it appeared that Mr. Sedlak's age is starting to show a bit. He has to be pushing 60 by now.
Sedlak told the audience that rail was easy to use, verses climbing up the steps of a bus. Strollers and bicycles could easily fit in rail cars. Advertising on buses and trains was a local policy issue and that Metro had to work with the City of Houston and Scenic Houston. There was a City ordinance in effect that prohibited advertising on City right of ways, and Metro's bus stops were located in those right of ways. Sedlak said Metro was not sure how much money could be raised, but Allen Kepler, Metro's first chairman, had decided long ago not to advertise on buses, as this was a branding issue. The agency had kept to that ever since.
One attendee asked about parking on the North Corridor rail alignment, stating that they were not sure where to park at Northline Mall. She asserted that if Metro wanted to encourage people to ride trains, then they needed to have lots of parking (really?!). Sedlak replied that Metro was looking at leasing parking space around the old mall area and was in talks with HCC about parking for the Main Street rail line, as well as the garage at the Ensemble Theater.
The issue of parking also came up with the Airport Express buses. Sedlak told the audience that Metro "loses a ton of money" running the Airport Express (but spending $640 million and not building any rail isn't?), but was looking at expanding the service to stop by nearby downtown hotels in an effort to pick up ridership. The same woman who asked about parking near Northline Mall stated that BART had problems with car parking and suggested that Metro build a better parking lot nearby the Airport Express staging lot.
One man asked the three speakers, "how will you defeat obstructionists like John Culberson?" The question drew some laughs from the audience. Greanias told the audience that Metro needed to persuade the rest of the community, and to convince the people around Culberson" on rail. Sedlak said that one key for Metro was "getting something done" on rail. In Dallas, he stated, they're asking "who gets it next?" Well, maybe. Garcia asked whether Metro should go to the airports, apparently not realizing that according to the 2003 bond election, Metro was going to the airports.
Another audience member, who happened to be a cyclist, mentioned that he could often beat buses when going from one place to another.
Cost overruns and media relations were addressed, and one audience member mentioned that HPRA President Barry Klein has been harping on cost overruns. Greanias told the audience that "if Barry wants buses, then what he'd really want were rickshaws". Greanias said that the new board is offensive when it comes to the media. FOIA requests are being handed out. Agency PR folks had spoken to Houston Press editor Margaret Downing, and noted that some recent articles by the Press had not been so snarky.
Greanias brought up the issue of ridership, which has been down for the past two years. Metro is starting to look at some of the edges of some routes to examine why patronage on some routes are low. Why? Greanias brought up the idea of issuing vouchers for taxis, rather than run a 45 foot bus along such routes. A lack of shelters along bus routes was cited, as colder weather affects ridership. Changing the fare box structure was acknowledged. Incidentally, Greanias told the audience that the FTA does not allow Metro to count riders ferried to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo for national statistics purposes.
HCDP chairman Garry Birnberg asked the Metro leadership what Democrats could do to help? One answer was to get ready for an eventual election on the general mobility fund. Another was to ask, "what's the other sides solution?", and that largely summed up the meeting.
Afterwards, Richmond Avenue merchant Daphne Scarbrough told the Wizard that she had run into former blogger and now Metro board member Christof Spieler at a Rice Design Alliance meeting. Ms. Scarbrough asked Christof about the orders for Spanish rail cars, which has gotten the agency in hot water with the FTA? Mr. Spieler told Ms. Scarbrough, "Daphne, we're doing everything the FTA tells us to do." No doubt about that. Sam Staley would be expecting nothing less.
The Wizard kept quiet during the HCDP meeting and simply took notes. What emerged from the HCDP talk was an agency leadership that is still fiercely ambitious. Yet it had also become clear that nobody at the agency really knows where they are going with this project. The agency "was looking" at parking at Northline Mall? The agency "is looking" at whether to complete building these rail lines to the airports? That is not what the agency said it would do back in November 2003 at the bond election.
And more to the point, Wendell Cox just wrote that what really matters if you are going to use state or agency power to build public infrastructure, that it is the outputs that matter, not the inputs. And we need to keep that in mind with everything we do.
Addendum: The Wizard is going to start publishing on a regular schedule - probably posting on Sunday evenings.