Oracles - November 2002.
Predictions made on November 15,2002
Prediction: Harry Potter and The Chamber of Secrets will gross $275 million in the United States domestic market and will gross $600 million more in the Worldwide market. Thus, the Worldwide gross total will come out to $875 million.
Maximum Points at Stake: 15
Difficulty Scale: 3
Accuracy of Prediction: I will multiply my score by
5 if both domestic and Worldwide predictions are within 2.5 percent of the
final tally. I will multiply my score by 4 if my predictions are within 5
percent of the actual totals. Multiply by 3 if I am within 8 percent of the
actual totals, multiply by 2 if within 12 percent of the totals, and by 1
if within 20 percent of the total. I get nothing if I am more than 20 percent
off.
The first Harry Potter film grossed $317 million in the United States and a whopping $650 million abroad. Most sequels do not match their predecessors. The Mighty Wizard believes that the sequel will follow this trend, since the novelty value of the series will have worn off.
The Mighty Wizard will defer to www. boxofficemojo.com for the results.
Result: ????
Prediction: The United States will go to war with Iraq.
Maximum Points at Stake: 20
Difficulty Scale: 4
Accuracy of Prediction: If the United States formally
declares, whether unilaterally or through U.N. resolution, that it is at war
with Iraq, award me a times 5 multiplier for 20 points. If there is no war
resolution within 12 months of this date, then I get nothing.
One way of looking at the Iraq issue is that the
United States and Great Britain have in fact been in continuous conflict with
Iraq since 1991. There has been, shockingly, an enforcement of a "no-fly zone"
over Northern Iraq for the past decade. I strongly suspect that few Americans
have given any thought to what sacrifices the pilots and their families have
made to enforce this undeclared conflict.
But we will set that aside, because this does not matter
to the Richard Perle's, William Kristols, and others who never served in the
military. What counts is now. My reading of the Bush II presidency is that
these guys have been hijacked by the neoconservatives on this issue and will
essentially find one reason or another to go to war with Iraq. I will write
more on this issue later.
Result: ????
Prediction: The State of Texas will spend all of the
proceeds of its gains from the Tobacco Resolution in the next legislative
session that will take place in 2003.
Maximum Points at Stake: 15
Difficulty Scale: 3
Accurancy of Prediction: The way I have phrased this
issue is in an all or nothing matter. Either I get 15 points or nothing. If
the State does not spend its Tobacco Resolution money this session, but does
spend the money in a future session, I get nothing. If the State never spends
the money, I get nothing. Estimated revenue gains to the State of Texas
are about $5.8 billion.
I will write more on the Tobacco Resolution, and what it means for Texas later.
Result: ????
Prediction: The Chinese Communist Party (henceforth
the CCP) will successfully co-opt business groups into its fold.
Maximum Points at Stake: 20
Difficulty Scale: 4
Accuracy of Prediction: I will base this prediction
that the CCP's membership, currently 66 million, will have 10 percent of its
members coming from business groups within 5 years. Needless to say, it will
take some time for the outcome of this prediction to be determined.
I will write more on this topic later.
Result: ???