Oracle - February 2003.
The United States and Cuba will have normalization of state to state relations within one year of the 2004 United States Presidential election.
Reasoning: There has been a steady stream of American political visitors to Cuba over the past several years, most notably former Minnesota governor Jesse Ventura. This is in addition to the 20,000 to 30,000 Americans who visit the island each year defying their nanny government telling them not to do so. Moreover, there is a growing list of businesses and commercial concerns that are lobbying Congress to lift sanctions and bury the 44 year old hatchet with Cuba.
The main block as I see it is, as always, a dwindling group of original Cubans who fled Cuba in the 1960's who still hate Castro's guts. They are still potent in American Presidential politics thanks to the Florida 2000 debacle and to the fact that Bush "won" the state's electoral votes by a hair (I won't get into that here). The Republicans still owe the Americanized Cubans something, but I think they won't be able to hold on for long. I think that the scales will tip in 2005, especially if Bush wins, but I think Congress will ultimately force the issue even if a Democrat wins.
As always, Fidel Castro may settle the issue before then by deciding to pass on. This Oracle is a matter of timing.
20 points are at stake here: 20 points if normalization occurs in 2005. Take 5 points off for each year I am off. I normalization occurs in 2010 for example, I get nothing.