Oracle - April 2003
I have two predictions about Iraq.
American troops will still be Iraq on December 31, 2003. For the official view, see here. Secretary Richard Armitage, General Tommy Franks, and others have gone on record saying American troops will be out ASAP.
My reasoning is as follows: Although here in America, we have seen plenty of images of cheering Iraqi's who greeted American troops, the fact is that there is news of Muslim clerics stirring up anti - American sentiment. There are plenty of Iraqi's who have plenty of obvious suspicions as to wondering why America really is in Iraq. Iraqi exiles who fled to the West and sat things out may not appear to be legitimate in the eyes of those who had to deal with the day to day hassle of living under Mr. Hussein.
Additionally, there is the issue of the Kurdish Diaspora. They might want autonomy or independence, but clearly the movement is not united. There are rivalries and factions within the Kurdish movements.
Similarly, there are matters such as what to do about the Shiites vis - a - vis the Sunni Muslims.
All of this, in my view, adds up to a long, thorny, and troubling occupation (oops, can I say that !?) of Iraq.
My second prediction is that there will be few if any of the endlessly yapped about "Weapons of Mass Destruction" found in Iraq. This in turn will call into question the very rationale as to why America and Britain invaded Iraq in the first place.
Oh, that's right - we were going there to liberate the Iraqi's!
Also, according to a Knight Ridder poll conducted in January 2003, 44 percent of Americans thought that at least some of the hijackers aboard the planes on September 11, 2001 were Iraqi's and not from Saudi Arabia. Never underestimate public ignorance and its effects on public policy.
